基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害风险评估     

李明  张韧  洪梅 《海洋通报》2018,(2):121-128

全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,造成的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害的风险评估工作至关重要。针对海洋灾害评估中的不确定问题,本文首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出针对不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型有效实现海洋灾害的风险评估,具有实际可操作性。  相似文献   

多种海洋开发类型的综合效益评估     

高升  徐敏  刘佰琼  曹广喜  赵林 《海洋通报》2018,(1):17-24

随着海洋开发活动的不断加剧,各海洋开发类型综合效益的评估与分析对维持海洋社会经济与海洋生态环境的可持续发展具有重大意义,不同海洋开发活动带来不同的社会、经济效益,也产生了海洋资源的损耗,影响了海洋环境和海洋生态服务功能。根据江苏省海洋资源开发活动特点,筛选出江苏海岸带资源开发中常见的4种典型的开发利用类型,选取了能够突出反映海洋开发活动综合效益的经济效益指标、社会效益指标、资源损耗指标、环境成本指标构建海洋开发类型综合效益评估体系。基于层次分析法与熵权法组合权重,运用综合效益指数评价模型分别计算了单一指标效益值、准则层效益值、各研究案例效益值、各用海类型效益值并对以上研究数据之间的相互关系进行了深入分析,探求各用海类型综合效益评估值的关键影响因素。通过实证研究发现4种海洋开发类型的综合效益评估值均介于0.4~0.6之间,处于一般的综合效益状态,综合效益从高到底依次排序:临港工业用海类型为0.551 3、海上风电用海类型为0.492 4、排污倾倒用海类型为0.441、围海养殖用海类型为0.434 3。海洋开发类型综合效益的评估对及时调整海洋开发对策,缓和海洋开发与海洋生态环境的矛盾具有积极意义。  相似文献   

双船双方位角地震探测技术方法及应用效果     

杨蜀冀  韦成龙  伍忠良  刘协来  杨册  王聪 《热带海洋学报》2018,37(1):98-104

南海东沙海域的陆坡台地区, 浅表断裂及生物礁发育众多, 浅层新生界多为碳酸盐岩层, 中深层的中生界内部构造复杂, 断裂较多, 常规单船窄方位地震剖面显示中深层反射品质较差。利用双船可以设计灵活的观测系统, 形成双方位角地震探测方式, 对于地下同一反射点的照明, 可以获得比窄方位角探测更好的效果, 也可以改善高速屏蔽层下方、高陡倾角斜层等区域的成像质量。文章通过重点技术的攻关研发, 进行了单源激发、双缆接收的双方位角采集试验, 成功实现该方法在南海海域中深层地震勘探中的应用。  相似文献   

Holocene relative sea level history and Storegga tsunami run‐up in Lyngen,northern Norway          下载免费PDF全文

Henrik Rasmussen  Stein Bondevik  Geoffrey D. Corner 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(4):393-408

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Influence of seismic motions on behavior of piles in liquefied soils          下载免费PDF全文

Kaustav Chatterjee  Deepankar Choudhury 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(3):516-541

In the present study an analytical procedure based on finite element technique is proposed to investigate the influence of vertical load on deflection and bending moment of a laterally loaded pile embedded in liquefiable soil, subjected to permanent ground displacement. The degradation of subgrade modulus due to soil liquefaction and effect of nonlinearity are also considered. A free headed vertical concrete elastic nonyielding pile with a floating tip subjected to vertical compressive loading, lateral load, and permanent ground displacement due to earthquake motions, in liquefiable soil underlain by nonliquefiable stratum, is considered. The input seismic motions, having varying range of ground motion parameters, considered here include 1989 Loma Gilroy, 1995 Kobe, 2001 Bhuj, and 2011 Sikkim motions. It is calculated that maximum bending moment occurred at the interface of liquefiable and nonliquefiable soil layers and when thickness of liquefiable soil layer is around 60% of total pile length. Maximum bending moment of 1210 kNm and pile head deflection of 110 cm is observed because of 1995 Kobe motion, while 2001 Bhuj and 2011 Sikkim motions amplify the pile head deflection by 14.2 and 14.4 times and bending moment approximately by 4 times, when compared to nonliquefiable soil. Further, the presence of inertial load at the pile head increases bending moment and deflection by approximately 52% when subjected to 1995 Kobe motion. Thus, it is necessary to have a proper assessment of both kinematic and inertial interactions due to free field seismic motions and vertical loads for evaluating pile response in liquefiable soil.  相似文献   

Evaluation of clayed silt properties on the behavior of hydrate production in South China Sea     

《China Geology》2020,3(3):362-368

Gas hydrate is one kind of potential energy resources that is buried under deep seafloor or frozen areas. The first trial offshore production from the silty reservoir was conducted in the South China Sea by the China Geological Survey (CGS). During this test, there were many unique characteristics different from the sand reservoir, which was believed to be related to the clayed silt physical properties. In this paper, simulation experiments, facilities analysis, and theoretical calculation were used to confirm the hydrate structure, reservoir thermo-physical property, and bond water movement rule. And the behavior of how they affected production efficiency was analyzed. The results showed that: It was reasonable to use the structure I rather than structure II methane hydrate phase equilibrium data to make the production plan; the dissociation heat absorbed by hydrate was large enough to cause hydrate self-protection or reformation depend on the reservoir thermal transfer and gas supply; clayed silt got better thermal conductivity compared to coarse grain, but poor thermal convection especially with hydrate; clayed silt sediment was easy to bond water, but the irreducible water can be exchanged to free water under high production pressure, and the most obvious pressure range of water increment was 1.9–4.9 MPa.  相似文献   

Sequence stratigraphic framework and sedimentary model of Shanxi Formation in northeast Zhoukou Depression of the North China Plate     

《China Geology》2020,3(4):575-590

The sequence stratigraphic framework of Shanxi Formation in the northeast Zhoukou Depression was established based on detailed sequence stratigraphical and sedimentological analysis by utilizing the logging and core data of six wells drilled in the eastern tectonic unit of Zhoukou Depression. It was divided into three third-order sequences, namely SQs1, SQs2, and SQs3 from bottom to top. Each sequence can be divided into a transgressive system tract (TST) and a highstand system tract (HST). Furthermore, four sequence boundaries and three maximum flooding surfaces were identified, and they are the bottom interface SBs and maximum flooding surface mfss1 of SQs1, the bottom interface SBs1 and maximum flooding surface mfss2 of SQs2, the bottom interface SBs3 and maximum flooding surface mfss3 of SQs3, and the top interface SBx from bottom to top. Carbonate tidal flat –clastic tidal flat sedimentary system developed in Shanxi Formation in the northeast Zhoukou Depression (also referred to as the study area) under the control of regression. Meanwhile, four sedimentary microfacies were identified in the sedimentary system, which are lime-mud flats, sand flats, mixed flats, and mud flats. The transgression in the study area occurred from the southeast to the northwest. Therefore, the northwestern part is the seaward side, and the southeastern part is the landward side. As revealed by relevant drilling data, SQs1 of the Shanxi Formation is characterized by the development of limestone and carbonaceous mudstone, with limestone, dark mudstone, and carbonaceous mudstone mainly developing. Meanwhile, lime-mud flats were mainly deposited in it. During the periods of SQs2 and SQs3, the sedimentary environment of the study area changed from the carbonate tidal flats to clastic tidal flats as the coastline migrated towards the sea. In these periods, sand flats mainly developed near the maximum flooding surfaces and were relatively continuous in the eastern and southern parts of the transgressive system tract; mixed flats were relatively continuous in the western and northern parts of the transgressive system tract as well as the eastern and southern parts of the highstand system tract; mud flats widely developed in the highstand system tract. Peat flats mainly developed in the period of HSTs2, with coal seams relatively developing in the southeastern part of the study area as revealed by drilling data. The peat flats in SQs2 are favorable hydrocarbon source layers, the lime-mud flats in SQs1 and sand flats formed in the transgression periods of SQs2 and SQs3 constitute favorable hydrocarbon reservoirs, and the mud flats form in the transgressions periods serve as favorable cap rocks. Therefore, the study area features a reservoir-cap assemblage for self-generating and self-storing of hydrocarbon, and the southeastern part of the study area can be taken as a favorable exploration area.  相似文献   

渤海自由生活海洋线虫两个新纪录种     

赵丽萍  乔春艳  陆洋  孙静 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(1):212-217

在对渤海滨州贝壳堤岛的自由生活海洋线虫进行分类和多样性研究中,发现2个我国新纪录种并进行了描述。其中,澳洲深咽线虫Bathylaimus australis Cobb,1894主要特征为:头刚毛长约20μm,分为4节,顶端膨大;前口腔大,无齿,后口腔小,具小齿;化感器双环形,位于口腔中部位置;交接刺细长,稍向腹面弯曲,近端膨大呈头状,长32-37μm;引带宽大,肾形,长36-40μm,末端角质化,渐尖。古氏努朵拉线虫Nudora gourbaultae Vincx,1989主要特征为:体表具12列纵向排列的V型装饰;第二体环较宽,头刚毛11-15μm(为头颈的67%-81%);化感器圆形,直径4-6μm(为相应体径的29%-38%),位于第二体环上;具双咽球;交接刺细长,弯曲呈S型,长为肛径的1.3-1.5倍;引带等于或长于交接刺,镰刀型,无肛前辅器。  相似文献   

守初心耕海探洋七十载担使命披风踏浪砥砺行——中国科学院海洋研究所70年发展纪实   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王凡  孙松 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(4):664-672

中国科学院海洋研究所是新中国第一个专门从事海洋科学研究的国立科研机构,她的70年光辉历程是我国海洋科技事业从无到有、从弱到强的发展缩影,是新中国海洋科学调查研究自主创新发展历程的真实写照。本文简要介绍中国科学院海洋研究所的主要发展历程,回顾70年来取得的主要科技成就,并围绕新形势下建设海洋大科学研究中心等改革发展举措,讨论和展望研究所的未来发展。  相似文献   

闽江口及周边海域沉积物输运及资源效应   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王爱军  叶翔  赖志坤  王亮 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(5):1013-1024

河流入海泥沙的大部分主要分布在河口、三角洲及近岸陆架地区,发育一系列的粗颗粒沉积体系,是海砂资源重要分布区。本文以福建闽江口为研究对象,初步探讨了沉积物输运过程及海砂资源的形成机制。观测结果表明,闽江河口水体盐度由河口内部向口外海域逐渐增大,水体浊度总体减小;闽江河口附近海域近底部(距离海底25cm)流向表现出一定的旋转流特征,潮周期内余流表现为向海输运,而推移质输运主要发生在涨潮期间,并且潮周期内净向陆输运。表层沉积物粒度分析结果表明,闽江河口水下三角洲前缘表层沉积物主要由粗颗粒物质组成,沉积物类型以砂和砂质粉砂为主,中值粒径小于4Φ;前三角洲地区表层沉积物主要由细颗粒物质组成,中值粒径介于4Φ—6Φ之间。沉积物粒径趋势分析结果表明,闽江入海泥沙经梅花水道和长门水道入海后,在盐淡水混合、径流、潮流的作用下,在闽江河口形成了四个粗颗粒沉积物汇聚区,成为闽江口地区海砂资源的重要分布区;而细颗粒物质在河口羽流和潮流的作用下向偏东方向输运,形成了以黏土质粉砂为主的前三角洲。  相似文献